@TBPInvictus right here
A couple of days in the past, Barry and I detailed how unscrupulous dangerous actors had taken Not Seasonally Adjusted information to falsely declare that California’s new $20/hour minimal wage had price the state virtually 10,000 quick-serve restaurant (QSR) jobs.
I wrote:
It seems to me that the Journal obtained that quantity from BLS. Nonetheless, BLS solely provides the sequence with out seasonal adjustment; this makes a really significant distinction.
Barry added:
There are two dangerous gamers right here: The partisans who know they’re abusing the info, and the naive journos being taken benefit of whose editors are too innumerate to know even primary modeling points like seasonal changes.
Greatest practices when utilizing information with a excessive diploma of seasonality is to make use of 12 months-over-12 months foundation (NSA) in your comparability. This removes the seasonality issue.
Pulitzer Prize successful LA Instances columnist Michael Hiltzik picked up on the difficulty, and did a masterful job explaining the complexities in layman’s phrases. His headline is traditional:
The fast-food business claims the California minimal wage legislation is costing jobs. Its numbers are pretend.
Theheart of the column is the acknowledgment and recantation from one of many key sources of the misinformation, Professor Lee Ohanian. Ohanian wrote to Hiltzik:
Ohanian acknowledged by e mail that “if the info will not be seasonally adjusted, then no conclusions might be drawn from these information concerning AB 1228,” the minimal wage legislation.
Barry provides:
Two issues so as to add to this dialogue:
It’s yet one more reminder that buyers should all the time be on guard for nonsensical claims from partisans who’ve zero concern in your portfolio. They’re taking part in a unique recreation, and you might be collateral harm.
And second, all the time recall what Joan Robinson taught us so way back:
“The aim of finding out economics is to not purchase a set of ready-made solutions to financial questions, however to discover ways to keep away from being deceived by economists.”
Supply:
The fast-food business claims the California minimal wage legislation is costing jobs. Its numbers are pretend.
by Michael Hiltzik
L.A. Instances, June 12, 2024
Free mirror: Yahoo
