Statistics Canada’s advance info means that actual GDP in March can be basically unchanged, which might imply the general achieve for the primary quarter can be 0.6%. The official estimate for the primary quarter can be out there on Might 31, 2024, when the official estimate of actual GDP by earnings and expenditure is launched.
Fee minimize expectations
“Right this moment’s GDP report confirmed our expectations that the January surge in output was non permanent, and under no circumstances marked an inflection level for the expansion backdrop in Canada that continues to be very weak,” stated RBC Economics economist Claire Fan, who added a June charge minimize continues to be RBC’s base case forecast.
CIBC Economics’ Andrew Grantham agrees.
“We suspected that power in GDP in the beginning of the 12 months largely mirrored an easing of earlier provide constraints in addition to higher than regular winter climate, and the waning of momentum since January helps that view,” he stated. “If progress stays sluggish in the beginning of Q2 as we count on, and inflation does not warmth up once more in April, the Financial institution of Canada ought to begin regularly lowering rates of interest on the June assembly.”
However Marc Ercolao at TD Economics consider the BoC might maintain off longer.
