There’s a bull market in bull market indicators flashing purple proper now.
Barron’s had a bullish cowl:
The Economist too:
The Nasdaq 100 is up greater than 60% for the reason that begin of 2023. Nvidia is up 500% in that point.
There are tens of billions of {dollars} flowing into the brand new bitcoin ETFs. Hypothesis in tech shares, crypto, NFTs, choices, day buying and selling, and many others. makes it really feel like we picked up proper the place we left off within the mini-2020/2021 meme inventory bubble.
If you wish to discover areas of concern and complacency, you don’t should look very exhausting proper now.
The unusual factor is there are some offsets to this bullish conduct.
Strategas has this chart displaying the long-term web flows for shares, bonds and cash market funds:
Take a look at the trillions of {dollars} which have poured into cash market funds these previous few years. Cash has really come out of inventory market mutual funds and ETFs on a web foundation whereas cash market funds have raked in trillions of {dollars}.
Does that sound like speculative conduct to you?
Now take a look at the sum of money in checking accounts:
The post-Covid transfer in money held at banks is not like something we’ve ever seen. And whereas it’s rolled over a bit, there may be nonetheless far more cash simply sitting in checking accounts doing nothing.
And this isn’t simply the rich both. Take a look at checkable deposits for the underside 50% by wealth:
This group is sitting on far more money too.
The inventory market has confirmed way more resilient than most individuals would have anticipated contemplating the inflationary surroundings we lived by way of. Everybody thought it was sure we’d be in a recession by now.
There are numerous causes the inventory market is up and the financial system stays robust (I’ve chronicled them right here, right here, right here, and right here).
Possibly the best purpose is that most individuals are wealthier than they’ve ever been.
Simply take a look at the up to date Fed information on family wealth by way of the tip of 2023:
The web price of Individuals hit one other new all-time excessive by the tip of 2023. And positive, debt ranges have hit new all-time highs as effectively however property are rising at a a lot sooner tempo:
You may see that the ratio of property to liabilities was falling all the way in which from the tip of the dot-com bubble in 2000 proper by way of the underside of the Nice Monetary Disaster in 2009.
That was not good. Ever since then households have reversed that pattern.
The pandemic has put the collective steadiness sheet of Individuals in a fair higher place:
For the reason that begin of 2020, property have grown at a wholesome clip whereas debt totals have really fallen.
Shoppers have been in horrible form heading into the 2008 monetary disaster. They have been overleveraged and didn’t manage to pay for saved to supply a margin of security.
That’s merely not the case this time round.
Money balances are excessive. Inventory costs are excessive. House fairness has by no means been increased. Yields are on the highest ranges they’ve been in effectively over a decade. Buyers, savers and customers alike are in fine condition.
Clearly, this isn’t everybody. Wealth inequality continues to be an issue. Not everybody owns monetary property or a house.
However the individuals who do personal monetary property are as flush as they’ve ever been. And that is the group that spends probably the most cash and buys shares, cash market funds and homes.
Costs on every little thing are up as a result of individuals have some huge cash proper now.
In fact, this case gained’t final ceaselessly.
There will likely be a recession sooner or later. Asset costs will fall. The financial system will overheat or an sudden occasion will trigger a slowdown.
Recessions haven’t been outlawed.
However American family steadiness sheets are in an awesome place when we’ve to climate the inevitable storm.
Additional Studying:
Individuals Have By no means Been Wealthier & No One Is Joyful
