The bungled launch of the 2024-25 FAFSA has precipitated a major drop within the variety of purposes for federal pupil assist.
This will result in a pointy decline in school enrollment in fall 2024. The drop is extreme sufficient that it could trigger some faculties to shut.
Restricted Information on Variety of Submitted Purposes
The U.S. Division of Training has not printed any statistics regarding the variety of submitted purposes, aside from rounded numbers included in 5 press releases as proven on this desk.
As of February 28, 2024, a complete of 4.7 million FAFSAs have been submitted, down 38% from the identical time final 12 months, when about 7.6 million FAFSAs had been submitted.
Based mostly on present tendencies, the variety of FAFSAs submitted by the tip of August 2024, will likely be about 2.8 million decrease than the identical time final 12 months, representing a lower of 19%.
This U.S. Division of Training has in contrast the 2024-25 FAFSA rollout to the 2016-17 FAFSA, the final 12 months with a January 1 begin date. Beginning in 2017-18, the FAFSA has had an October 1 begin date.
Whereas the three.1 million 2024-25 FAFSAs submitted by January 30, 2024 exceed the variety of 2016-17 FAFSAs submitted by January 30, 2016, the variety of 2024-25 FAFSAs submitted in February slowed significantly.
By February 28, 2024, a complete of 4.7 million FAFSAs had been submitted, in contrast with 5.5 million by the tip of February 2016. By the tip of August 2024, the variety of FAFSAs submitted will likely be 3.7 million decrease than the quantity submitted by the tip of August 2016.
The variety of FAFSAs submitted dropped to 55,000 per day in February 2024, down from 103,000 per day in January 2024. The upper determine in January was in all probability on account of pent-up demand. The variety of FAFSAs submitted per day in February is just like the common every day whole in earlier years, or about 52,000 per day. The quantity submitted per day within the second half of February, nevertheless, has slowed to about 47,000 per day, which is lower than the identical time final 12 months or in February 2016.
The lower within the general variety of FAFSAs submitted means that the variety of Federal Pell Grant recipients will likely be about the identical as final 12 months, regardless of the brand new Federal Pell Grant components making it simpler for college kids to qualify for the grant.
It’s doable that candidates are ready till the FAFSA is totally useful to submit the shape. Low-income college students and first-generation school college students do are inclined to submit the FAFSA later than middle- and high-income college students.
This graph exhibits the entire variety of FAFSAs submitted in whole every month in 2024-25 and 2023-24. The blue line exhibits a projection of the variety of FAFSAs that will likely be submitted in March by the tip of August, if present tendencies proceed.
Until there’s a spike within the variety of FAFSAs submitted after the FAFSA turns into totally useful, the variety of 2024-25 FAFSAs won’t ever catch as much as the variety of FAFSAs submitted in 2023-24.
Penalties of the FAFSA Fiasco
The issues with the 2024-25 FAFSA and the “mushy launch” interval have prevented many college students from submitting the FAFSA.
- The delayed begin to the 2024-25 FAFSA implies that candidates have been capable of begin submitting the FAFSA three months late.
- Some candidates and contributors have been unable to acquire the FSA IDs wanted to file the FAFSA or have encountered different issues that forestall them from submitting the FAFSA.
- A number of the workarounds supplied by the U.S. Division of Training don’t work.
- Insufficient testing of the brand new FAFSA has precipitated a major variety of implementation issues, particularly with the FSA ID.
- The decision middle of the Federal Pupil Assist Data Middle (FSAIC) has been overwhelmed, stopping some callers from reaching a consultant even after ready on maintain for hours. Name disconnects are frequent. Some callers attain voice mail messages that inform them to name again later. Candidates and contributors haven’t obtained responses to e-mail messages despatched by the safe on-line messaging type.
Many college students have been unable to see their Pupil Assist Index (SAI) or noticed an inaccurate SAI.
- The delayed resolution to regulate the monetary assist components for the 18.3% inflation from April 2020 to April 2023 contributed to the delays in implementing the 2024-25 FAFSA.
- Some college students are unable to see the Affirmation Web page with the Pupil Assist Index (SAI), relying on whether or not they or their contributors accomplished their part of the FAFSA first. This implies they gained’t have the ability to get their SAI till they obtain the FAFSA Submission Abstract.
- Some college students noticed their SAI earlier than the inflation changes have been made.
Delayed processing of submitted FAFSAs precipitated different issues, akin to:
- Delayed supply of Institutional Pupil Data Information (ISIR) to schools, resulting in delays within the receipt of the FAFSA Submission Abstract by candidates. The U.S. Division of Training says that the ISIRs will begin being despatched to schools within the first half of March, which can imply that the primary ISIRs aren’t despatched to schools till the Ides of March (March 15) and it’ll take a number of weeks for faculties to obtain all of their ISIRs.
- Candidates are unable to make corrections to the FAFSA or so as to add and delete faculties from the FAFSA till they obtain the FAFSA Submission Abstract.
- Because of the delayed receipt of ISIRs, there will likely be a delay in faculties sending monetary assist gives to admitted college students. Usually, monetary assist award notifications are despatched to college students in early March. Now, the award notifications won’t be despatched to college students till April in probably the most optimistic state of affairs.
- Schools are delaying the Determination Day deadline for college kids to just accept gives of admission to Might 15 or June 1.
Some college students usually tend to be affected by the FAFSA issues than others.
- Low-income college students, first-generation school college students, rural college students and underrepresented minority college students usually tend to be affected by the FAFSA issues.
- College students in Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Florida and Alaska are least prone to have submitted the FAFSA.
- Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, California and Tennessee have skilled the best declines within the variety of FAFSAs submitted.
