To the shock of many, MSCI Rising Markets Index returns in 2020 matched these of the S&P 500. Given this robust efficiency, are there causes to be optimistic about rising markets in 2021? Certainly, there’s a lot to love about their basic outlook, and affected person buyers may benefit from a powerful rebound in earnings. That being stated, there are near-term dangers to be conscious of: the robust snapback in 2020 implies that rising market equities don’t have the wind of extraordinarily low cost valuations behind them. Plus, they proceed to face challenges, with potential restrictions arising from the unfold of recent coronavirus variants and rising U.S. rates of interest.
A Look Again at 2020
Early in 2020, buyers fled rising markets for the protected haven of the U.S. greenback and dollar-denominated belongings. Their nervousness was comprehensible. When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, rising market international locations didn’t have superior well being care infrastructures, they didn’t have cash to spend, they usually couldn’t afford to print cash like a lot of the developed world. In different phrases, they have been shedding a grip on their future. However many rising markets did a better-than-expected job of managing the pandemic, and the resilience of their economies was mirrored of their inventory markets.
The place Will Rising Markets Go Subsequent?
As we glance forward, there are 4 key catalysts for rising market fairness returns: enchancment in well being outcomes, world progress alternatives, the flexibility to fireplace on all cylinders, and greenback depreciation.
Enchancment in well being outcomes. There was a stark divergence within the success charges of rising market international locations in dealing with the pandemic. China and several other different North Asian international locations navigated the disaster significantly better than the remainder of the world, whereas many Latin American international locations struggled. Even now, there’s vast dispersion within the penetration of the vaccination applications. Thus, economies of some international locations have rebounded faster after the sharp collapse early final yr, and others are on the tail finish of the disaster. As vaccinations get underway, we might see higher optimistic convergence amongst rising international locations, because the North Asian economies maintain optimistic momentum whereas others reopen and rebound.
International progress alternatives. Rising market international locations have a better beta to world progress. Following the preliminary lockdown, world manufacturing progress rebounded strongly and remained resilient through the subsequent virus waves. Industrial manufacturing volumes are above pre-crisis ranges in most rising markets. General, rising market international locations weathered the pandemic higher than developed international locations and are anticipated to steer the restoration within the post-pandemic interval.
Skill to fireplace on all cylinders. Previously couple of a long time, the rising market index has pivoted from an obese in conventional supplies, vitality, and financials to extra growth-oriented sectors like expertise, shopper discretionary, and well being care (see chart beneath). Secular developments like digitalization and elevated spending on well being care, logistics, and premium merchandise ought to proceed because the pandemic disaster strikes behind us. The evolution of the sector make-up of the rising market index is favorable for higher earnings progress charges and performs into the long-term rising market shopper theme.
There’s additionally the prospect for broadening of the rising market alternative set. The current surge in commodity and oil costs has lifted optimism about financial prospects within the massive pure useful resource producers in Latin America and the Center East. Whereas this will not sign the beginning of one other commodity tremendous cycle, it does increase the near-term outlook for the cyclical areas and sectors of rising markets.
Greenback depreciation. Rising market equities are likely to do higher in a weaker greenback atmosphere. A weaker greenback results in simpler monetary situations and attracts overseas capital into rising markets. Conversely, because the greenback strengthens, rising markets expertise outflows and weaker returns for U.S. buyers. The greenback has been range-bound up to now few months, as longer-dated U.S. charges rose, and there’s potential for some strengthening right here if the upward strain in charges stays. However the basic elements for a longer-term development of a weaker greenback proceed—huge cash printing, an enormous fiscal deficit, and broadening world progress. A weaker greenback might elevate rising market equities additional.
Evaluating the Close to-Time period Threat
After robust beneficial properties in current months, rising market equities seem to have come off the boil, pushed partially by rising U.S. Treasury yields. Regardless of the current declines, valuations in elements of rising market equities look stretched relative to their historical past (see chart beneath). This might show to be a near-term headwind, particularly if U.S. charges proceed to rise and the greenback consolidates beneficial properties or rises additional.
Supply: Capital Economics
Earnings Progress Forward?
Whereas richer valuations might be a headwind, stronger earnings progress might carry the day (or yr) for rising markets. Valuation adjustments have been the important thing driver of rising market fairness returns up to now few years. Even in 2020, when earnings of rising market corporations tanked as international locations went into lockdown, investor sentiment and, therefore, valuation multiples rebounded shortly.
Going into 2021, a lot of the heavy lifting will have to be finished by earnings progress. Right here, the outlook is sort of sturdy. Consensus expectations are for a virtually 30 % rebound in company earnings. Regardless of the richer multiples relative to historical past, there’s a higher probability that rising market equities will develop into these valuations and reward buyers via greater earnings progress.
Supply: Goldman Sachs Asset Administration
The Lengthy View
Rising markets supply engaging progress alternatives, each now and over the long run. They’ve survived a number of stress assessments over time, and their efficiency through the pandemic is but extra proof of their resilience. Wanting forward, I anticipate sturdy danger urge for food to assist rising market belongings. Publish-pandemic restoration of home economies, accelerating world progress, and a weak greenback—these are only a handful of the various elements supporting an publicity to rising markets.
That stated, valuations of rising market equities look wealthy on a historic foundation, with the MSCI Rising Markets Index’s ahead price-to-earnings ratio buying and selling at 16x, versus a five-year common nearer to 12x. Positive aspects in 2020 got here from a number of expansions, as is the norm when exiting recessions. Going ahead, earnings per share progress from a synchronized world financial restoration will drive fairness costs. This might result in a broadening of beneficial properties to the extra cyclically oriented areas and sectors of rising markets that lagged the current rally and supply extra engaging valuations.
Editor’s Word: The unique model of this text appeared on the Impartial Market Observer.
